European Union Extends an Invitation to the Ukrainian Nation, Yet Will It Ever Become a Member?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although commanding his country during a war, is also chasing a dream for peacetime: securing EU membership for his country promptly.
Ukraine's persistent leader is ramping up demands on European Union member states to accelerate the protracted membership procedure. He frames the national sacrifice of his people as a fight "to secure the Ukrainian destiny, the future of Ukraine inside the European Union."
This dream of tens of millions of Ukrainians gaining European status is, in theory, endorsed by the union itself. These days, hardly any gathering in Brussels ends without the country's membership being referred to as a "geopolitical necessity."
Such language portrays the nation's existence and Europe's future security as two sides of the same coin. Yet, for years after the 2004 "big bang" that welcomed ten former eastern bloc states, there was no desire for new members, least of all the large eastern nation. Putin's tanks changed all that – just months of the illegal 2022 attack, Ukraine had applied for, and been granted, "official candidate" status. A year, EU leaders took the momentous step to commence membership talks with a nation in conflict, although with no a set timeframe. Adjacent the Republic of Moldova, the former Soviet state feared to be next in Putin's crosshairs, vaulted to the top of the queue along with Ukraine.
Recently, the European Commission released its formal assessment of the progress of 10 aspiring states, and placed both nations among the group of four leading candidates, together with two Balkan states. The EU foreign policy chief stated it was a realistic target that these four could each be in the EU by 2030.
The country's favorable verdict is objectively remarkable. Enemy airstrikes are hammering the nation's power infrastructure regularly, its exchequer is almost depleted and many millions of its people are refugees, figuratively camped out in other parts of the continent. Its negotiators are frequently physically in shelters. But, in Brussels, representatives are upbeat about the huge reform push being undertaken in Kyiv even with ongoing worries about graft. Information of an alleged corruption case at Ukraine's national energy operator are still emerging. Even so, they claim, accession talks could be complete by the end of 2028. Negotiations with small the Balkan states could be concluded by 2026 and the following year, respectively.
A Reality Check
There is a sobering reality gap: the European Commission cannot decide who gets in. The 27 current member states hold that power, and they must agree unanimously through each phase. And, currently, the Union's notorious leader Viktor Orbán is obstructing the formal start of talks with Kyiv. Since Moldova is bundled with Ukraine, it too is stuck.
Attention are on elections in the central European country in April, which unseat the long-serving leader. Yet some member states with internal political concerns may be sheltering behind the Hungarian veto. With far-right parties gaining strength in major European nations and currently in government elsewhere, the broader context for Ukraine's acceptance is challenging.
Experts note a discrepancy between verbal support and actual desires. "I doubt that a lot of nations in the Union really desire the nation to be a full member, for different causes," says one close observer of the accession procedure. "Yet it is a great shame: because the EU would gain immensely by bringing in this nation."
Identifying the Obstacles?
The geopolitical argument for accepting the country may be even more pressing in light of Putin's "hybrid war" on Europe, but given its size and complexity, so are the diplomatic and budgetary hurdles. Once the talks are finished, ratification by each of the 27 member states – several mandate public votes – is formally required for any new accession. Although public support for Ukraine's entry is certainly strong in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, a significant portion throughout the Union oppose it.
Radical right political groups are gaining ground and many of them are vehemently anti-European and anti-enlargement. With Marine Le Pen's nationalist party potentially headed for power in the French Republic in 2027, a public vote in the country on the candidate's membership would be a struggle. Within pro-expansion countries, there is trepidation about the costs involved, considering the nation's economic challenges and immense reconstruction requirements. A contentious debate over whether to seize billions of immobilized Russian assets to rescue the nation before it exhausts its funds in the spring is ongoing. Three central European nations, meanwhile, worry that their agricultural economies will be harmed if the large agricultural producer, a huge agricultural country and competitor, gains eligibility for farm support payments.
Expansion in general, it is worried, could destabilise instead of strengthen the EU, until internal reforms are first implemented to avoid paralysis in a union of 30-something members. But such reform could take a long time.
Winning Support and Security Concerns
Officials in Brussels may have innovative solutions to Orbán's veto such as "preparatory work", where negotiations could begin unofficially until Hungary's opposition is removed.
Discussions are underway, too, of including tough new regulatory guarantees and lengthy probationary periods into new membership agreements to reassure doubters. Nobody desires new members that formally appear to uphold the democratic norms, but who prove to be "Trojan horses" to the union.
PR campaigns and "messaging" to gain the support of citizens in both the current member states and the candidate states are planned. It is clear, however, that creating hopes and then stranding millions in limbo indefinitely carries dangers. As the Moldovan president, the pro-European president, who in September overcame Kremlin meddling to achieve a impressive pro-EU electoral win, cautions recently: "If we don't succeed in the coming years … then what's be the signal to the citizens?"
The Ukrainian president gave an exclusive interview to stress the risks of Moscow initiating conflict against another European country before the Ukraine war concludes. He further emphasized the nation's resilience at a perilous moment, and his deep affection for his compatriots. "I believe that
